State of the Big Ten Address 2.0 (Feb 25th)

While most of the sports websites have the Big Ten pegged for 5 teams now, we here at SSE are still unsatisfied.  Being from the Midwest and mostly exposed to the regional action of the Big Ten, Big East, and Atlantic 10 conferences, we have a reason and a right to be biased (uh-hmm Dickie V and the ACC).  Though the B10 didn’t fair very well in last year’s NCAA Dance (no team made it beyond the round of 32), there’s no reason to believe a repeat of that unusual performance will be looming.  After all, the year before last the conference had 2 teams in the Final Four (Illinois and Mich State).

As we witnessed after Michigan State downed Wisconsin on Tuesday evening, Joe Lunardi from ESPN promptly issued a second Bracketlogy (in emergency fashion), the next day to conform to the ever changing landscape of the Dance.  I’d like to think he heard our complaints, though that is a far fetched scenario.  He now has 5 teams dancing rom the B10, and at this point, I’d say that is pretty accurate considering the next team’s from the conference (Purdue & Illinois) still have some work to do.

Today, in the first ever battle of #1 vs #1 in NCAA history, the Ohio State Buckeyes protected their home court 49-48 over Wisconsin, in a very physical and emotionally demanding performance.  Both teams had several chances to break the game open, only to be turned away offensively.  The win secures the Big Ten regular season championship for the 2nd straight year for the Buckeyes, who will be the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament from March 8-11.  The win also should set the Buckeyes apart in terms of who deserved the #1 seed in the Dance.  Conley and Oden both contributed 11 points for the Bucks, who finish the regular season unbeaten at home.

Saturday in another pivotal B10 game, Michigan State defeated Indiana by coming from 13 down in the second half to win 66-58.  The win virtually secures an NCAA Dance bid for the Spartans, while the Hoosiers still haven’t found a way out of the downward spiral they’ve been in for the past 2 weeks.  Raymar Morgan (MSU freshman from Canton, Ohio) tied a career high with 18 points and has averages over 16 ppg over the 4 game winning streak.  Flu-ridden Drew Neitzel finished with 17 points after a dismal 2 point effort in the 1st half.

SSE forecasts 6 teams from the Big Ten being selected for the Big Dance, and here is how it breaks down:

1 SEED - Ohio State Buckeyes 26-3 (14-1)

• Having beaten Penn State and Wisconsin at home this week secured the Bucks B10 Title, and #1 seed in the BTT.  Greg Oden continues to be a major force in opponents offensive schemes, and the Buckeyes are finally starting to not depend on the 3 as much.  You live by the 3, you die by the 3, and Ohio State and Thad Matta I beliebe have figured out that one shot and done possessions do nothing in terms of putting away games in the 2nd half.  If the Bucks continue to play with the urgency they displayed in the last 5 minutes of the PSU game, they will make a serious run the the NCAA Tournament.

2 SEED – Wisconsin Badgers 26-4 (12-3)

• Losing to Ohio State only is going to make this great team greater.  The Badgers can take several positives from this loss, and rightly should be in a position for a low #1 seed or solid #2 seed in the Big Dance.  Alando Tucker will be able to exploit most teams offensively, but chances are they will end up running into a team a big guys like Ohio State’s Oden and Hunter, or Florida’s Horford and Noah, or Georgetown’s Hibbert.  Wow, this team has serious potential on a neutral court, and should be a serious contender for the BTT Title and Dance title.

8 SEED – Indiana Hoosiers 18-9 (8-6)

• While the Hoosiers struggled with Minnesota on Wednesday night, they snapped their losing skid by pulling away late for a 12 point win.  That win was huge because Indiana then went to Mich State on Saturday and lost to the surging Spartans.  At this point SSE still sees this team as an 8 seed lock in the Dance, and even could slip to the 10 seed before its all said and done.  Who knows what goes on in the selection room on that Sunday, but one thing is for sure, Indiana should finish 10-6 in the conference, and be a sure invite to the Dance.

6 SEED – Michigan State Spartans 21-8 (8-6)

• With the several wins over quality opponents that the Spartans have, it’s no question that MSU will be a part of the Dance.  The question that remains is where will they be placed.  They will most certainly be a very tough out for any team to handle in the Dance and SSE has them pegged as a 6 seed this week.  With a victory over Michigan this week and a close game or win over Wisconsin this weekend, MSU could be easily a 6, or even 5 seed by next week.  Drew Neitzel and the Spartans have surging up through the B10 standing and are sitting in a 3rd place tie with Ilinois and Indiana with a far more superior schedule to any of those teams chasing Dance bids.  Travis Walton is on pace to challenge Greg Oden for BT Defensive POY, and is by far the best BT perimeter defender in years.

9 SEED – Illinois Fighting Illini 21-9 (9-6)

• I’d like to think Illinois is a lock for the Big Dance, but the way experts talk of them, they are still squarely on the bubble.  With a another win this week and maybe a win or 2 in the BTT, the Illini look to have 23 wins, and my confidence for a bid to the Dance.  They showed up this week against inferior opponents Michigan and Illinois, and held their own in double digit wins over both.  Look for a 9 seed for right now.

10 SEED – Purdue Boilermakers 18-10 (7-7)

• With the big loss to Iowa, who isn’t going to the Dance, Purdue slips up a bit in the Dance seeding, but their quality of non-conference opponents coupled with a .500 or better B10 record will propel Purdue to the Dance barring a late season collapse including a first round exit in the BTT.  They went to Northwestern an won a solid game on both sides of the ball by 7 points.  It is very hard to score 70+ at Evanston and the Boilers put up 75.  Don’t lose hope in this team, they will be a part of the dance fever.

Iowa and Michigan still need major help in getting any kind of consideration for the Big Dance.  I wouldn’t put it past either of these teams to make a run in the BTT, but that is likely not going to happen with surging Michigan State, and having Ohio State and the Badgers at the top waiting to pounce on the lucky survivors of day 1.  The Big Ten has way too much to prove to the rest of the nation, and upsets will be at a premium in Indianapolis.

NIT Lock – Iowa Hawkeyes 16-12 (8-6)

• Bad non-conference losses, lead to this decent team having 12 losses at the wrong time in the season.  The nice looking Big Ten record is clouded by the weak schedule and Iowa certainly has the chance to finish above some of our “lock” teams in the standing, but unless they make a serious run the BTT will be playing in the NIT.

NIT Lock – Michigan Wolverines 19-10 (7-7)

• A .500 record in the B10 is not going to make this Michigan team look any better to the selection committee.  UM needs to make a big run in the BTT to have any chance of getting to the Dance.  They lack the signature wins the other locks possess, and if they happen to knock off OSU and UW in the BTT, they will be in the Big Dance, because there they will receive their quality wins.  An early exit in that tournament will lead directly to an opening round home game in the NIT.

In closing, the picture looks to be a little more clear for the Big Ten this week.  You can never count a Tom Izzo coached team out at any point in the long season, he does much more with much less and deserves to be B10 COY.  He is also in the running for National Coach of the Year for several publications, an award he’s won 4 times before.  Michigan State has no McDonald’s AA on the team, and lost 3 players to the NBA last season.  They were predicted by most to finish 8 or 9 in the B10 behind the likes of Penn State in some mags.  They are 21-8, have beaten a #1 team or the first time since 1979 (title game versus Larry Bird and unbeaten Indiana State), and are on the verge of returning to the Dance for the 10th straight year.  Things to look for this week:

• Michigan State at Michigan – For Michigan and the hopes of their season, this is a must win for the Wolverines.  This will be a tough match up, and look for a hard fought battle between these 2 rivals.

• Ohio State at Michigan – Finishing the season against MSU and OSU is a tough project, and this scenario will most likely go against the favor of UM.  The NIT will be glad to welcome these guys with open arms.

• Michigan State at Wisconsin – A rematch of the big game that was played in EL last week should be a great performance by both teams.  Michigan State is hot as ever, and Wisconsin is a bit steamed after dropping 2 straight as the #1 team in the AP land.

• Illinois at Iowa – This could be the game the Illini need to secure “for sure” the bid to the dance.  If they drop this one, they had better do a little work in the BTT.

Next week will be part 3 of the “State of the Big Ten Address” after this week’s action concludes.