State of the Big Ten Address (Feb 20th)

ESPN.com analyst Joe Lunardi runs the weekly series on the NCAA Tournament Brackets called Bracketology, and has had a season long gripe with with Big Ten Conference.  In the latest released report (Feb 18th), Lunardi has the Big Ten pegged to have only 4 teams in the Big Dance, while other power conferences such as the ACC, PAC 10, and Big East have at least 6 teams invited.  What gives?

Going into this week the Big Ten sported the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country respectively.  In the Media Poll, Wisconsin is ranked #1 followed by Ohio State at #2, rankings which are vice versa in the Coaches Poll.  This is the current state of the conference:

SSE isn’t going to settle for only 4 teams in the Dance from the B10.  He has Indiana as a 7 seed and Purdue as an 11?  The B10 has gained a whole lot of steam heading into these final weeks of the regular season.  The media, especially the likes of Lunardi, have been banking too much on the non-conference woes of the B10, and you know what I say?  Where are the woes?  The only point in this season where the non-conference seemed to bite the B10 in the fanny was during the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.  I challenge you to replay each of those games at this point in the season and still say the outcomes will remain the same.  Do you think North Carolina would still beat up Ohio State, or do you think Boston College would still KO Michigan State?  No way.  The Big Ten easily has 5 teams that can soundly beat 1st place Virginia (what?) of the ACC at this point, and that number can easily be 6.  I can with confidence call a Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, or Illinois victory over Duke at this point in the season.  Have you seen how the Dukies have been taking their last 10 games of the season?  Pitiful, and I bet with the young team Coach K has, they will do some work in the off-season and come out as a legit top 10 team next year, but this is this year.  They aren’t the Duke of old, and the media still treats them like they are. 

At this current time Ohio State holds the top spot in the conference by a half-game over Wisconsin at 12-1.  The Badgers do travel to Columbus on Sunday which sets up a historic game of nature as two #1 teams will be on the same court for the first time ever.  The game already has been tainted though as just one day after being announced as the #1 team in the media poll, Wisconsin traveled to Michigan State and lost by 9.  Though the rankings do not come out until the next Monday the spots will hold true for Sunday’s game in Ohio.

SSE forecasts 6 teams from the Big Ten being selected for the Big Dance, and here is how it breaks down:

1 SEED - Ohio State Buckeyes 24-3 (12-1)

• The Buckeyes are flying on all points of their diverse team, and have only lost 3 games this year, all to teams currently ranked in the Top5.  They have several big victories this season including a perfect home record, and wins at Indiana, at Michigan State, and at Illinois.  Greg Oden is becoming the force no one wants to mess with.  Just by him being on the court, opponents have to change and alter the way their offense in run.  The opposing offenses are starting to figure out they need to draw Oden out from the low block while he is on defense by shifting their big men to the perimeter, and that is something Wisconsin does really well.  They have done everything that should be asked of a #1 seed, and deserve it at this point.  A win over the Badgers would be a giant leap to the start of the line, and sole possession of the #1 ranking. Key wins are not a factor at this point for the Bucks, as they are squarely without a doubt in the Dance.

2 SEED – Wisconsin Badgers 26-3 (12-2)

• The Badgers started the season strong, and rightly so as they have a very experienced team led by National POY candidate Alando Tucker.  Tucker, who is averaging over 21 points per contest, has led his team to right where they want to be this time of the year.  #1.  The Badgers did suffer a mild setback though, that ultimately may pay by costing them a #1 seed in the Dance, losing at Michigan State tonight by 9 points.  A win at Ohio State on Sunday could vault them back up to the top of the conference and back to a #1 seed.  The Badgers know how to handle Oden on both sides of the ball, as they have several big men that can actually shoot a good percentage from the perimeter.  Keeping Oden away from the paint is key in getting Tucker open looks underneath.  Key wins are also a non factor for this team.

8 SEED – Indiana Hoosiers 17-8 (7-5)

• What was a hot topic over a month ago now, has quietly faded down the back stretch, losing games to hot Purdue and Michigan consecutively.  The Hoosiers can gain some momentum back as they take on Michigan State on the road, and if they happen to win that game, they will carry loads of momentum to the B10 tourny.  DJ White leads the team in points and rebounds and continues to be a big motivational factor for the Hoosiers are in a slump of late.  Their  key wins include a win at UCONN (who has struggled this season) , but close losses at Duke, Kentucky, and Butler, all by 5 or less.  In conference, the Hoosiers have beaten Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue handily.  Look for the Michigan State game to be the breaker for where this team ends up in the field come March.

7 SEED – Michigan State Spartans 20-8 (7-6)

• MSU stunned #1 Wisconsin 64-55 behind a valiant effort from their guards in Drew Neitzel’s scoring (28 points 6-11 from 3) and Travis Walton (13 points, 10 assists, and 7 rebounds) almost getting a triple double.  They left their trademark defensive stamp on the Badgers, and Alando Tucker claimed MSU was the “best defense I’ve seen all year”. Michigan State may have not been playing it’s best basketball a few weeks back, but now they are clicking on all cylinders.  They are fully healthy for the first time this season, and looking to lock up a berth into the Dance for the 10th straight year.  You may think they are down at times, but folks, you cannot count a Tom Izzo basketball team out for long.  They are feisty, and they are the best defensive team in the B10 this season.  They grab more rebounds than any other team, block more shots than the rest, and steal the ball more times than any conference foe.  They are allowing only 55 points per game this season, and that is good for top 3 in the NCAA.  Drew Neitzel, the MVP of the Spartans, and perhaps the B10 altogether if he puts together a few more games like tonight, is just about unstoppable at times.  Not even he can make himself miss it seems.  Michigan State has key wins this year against Wisconsin (64-55 tonight), by 7 over Illinois, by 2 at Texas, by 20 over Vermont (they are running away with the America East crown and a gaudy record of their own), by 29 over Bradley (who is peaking at the right time from the stubborn Missouri Valley), by 12 over BYU (surprising 1st place squad at 20-6, in the Mountain West).  And have close losses to Boston College and Maryland in the non-conference from the ACC.  This team wins 2 of their next 3, and 1 or 2 in the conference tournament, and they are a solid lock for a 7 seed come Dance time.

9 SEED – Illinois Fighting Illini 19-9 (7-6)

• B10 teams usually are taken off the proverbial bubble once they hit the 20 win season mark and a .500 or better conference record.  The Illini have both going for them at this point in the season, with games left against Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa, they are bound to win once more, and could even win a game or 2 in the conference tourney which would only pad the stats a bit more.  The Illini are led by an committee of offensive players in Carter, Pruitt, and McBride, and their 3 point expert Jamar Smith is sitting the remainder of the season due to off the court problems.  The key wins for Illinois include a 24 point win at Bradley, and B10 wins over Indiana, Michigan State, and Iowa.  Close non-conf losses to Arizona and Maryland are taken into consideration as well. 

7 SEED – Purdue Boilermakers 17-9 (6-6)

• I am just going in order of the conference standings, so it is true we have Purdue as a solid 7 seed in the dance.  Carl Landry and David Teague lead one of the hottest teams in the B10 right now, along with Michigan State, and are making their tournament push at the right time.  With 2 games against Northwestern left with also games against Iowa and Minnesota, you have to believe that this team is going to take 3 of those 4 games, finish at 9-7 in the league and go Dancing.  They may even win a few in the B10 tourny, and finish with 21 or 22 wins before the selections are announced.  Their key wins are what will get them into the dance.  They have won at Georgia Tech and Oklahoma, and have beaten ACC 1st place Virginia at home.  They have knocked off Michigan State by 34, Illinois by 17, and Indiana by 13.  They are in. 

You can say what you want about Michigan and Iowa deserving bids to the dance, but that isn’t going to happen.  If the NCAA Tournament selection committee thinks like bone head Lunardi does at ESPN, then there will already be enough angry Big Ten fans to go around.  So to fuel my argument that Iowa & UM are not deserving, check this out:

NIT Lock – Iowa Hawkeyes 15-12 (7-6)

• In the non conference they lost to Arizona State (is in last place and who has only 1 conference win in the Pac10), Drake (last place in the Missouri Valley), and Northern Iowa (a decent team, a fellow NIT team, yet you have to win your instate games against mid-majors).  They have beat only Indiana and Michigan State in the B10 worth anything, and have piled their wins against Northwestern, Minnesota, and Penn State.  They may end up 8-8 in the league, but with 14 potential season losses, the Hawkeye fans cannot make a case over any of the B10  teams in the Dance above them.

NIT Lock – Michigan Wolverines 18-9 (6-6)

• Yes, mathematically the Wolves are still eligible to potentially end the season at 22-9 and 10-6 in the league, but let’s be realistic here.  They have games remaining against Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State with a game at Minnesota thrown in the mix.  They will be lucky to win 2 of those and more likely to lose 3 of the 4.  Say they do win 2 of those games and finish the regular season at 20-11 and 8-8 in the B10.  The proverbial bubble will still be holding Michigan due to their lack of non-conference wins. I’d hate to say it but their best non-conference win against Delaware State (1st place in the MEAC at 16-11 overall).  They like Iowa have piled up the wins against the bottom feeders of the conference to make their record look respectable at this point in the season.  They have wins against Indiana and Illinois, and that is a open shut case on the no end for the UM basketball squad.  The day Amaker decides to try and recruit elsewhere besides leftovers from the state of Michigan (where MSU gets all the big names) and decides to schedule someone to play in the non-conference, is the day when he gets looked at good and hard by the selection committee.  He consistently has recruited no one, and has padded his schedules immensely. 

In closing, the Big Ten deserves and will get 6 bids to the Big Dance by seasons end, and this may just be the year when 2 B10 teams make it to the Final Four again.  It happens more often then you think.  Things to look for this week:

• Indiana at Michigan State – Saturday - MSU is on all rockets right now, and Indiana is looking to end a slump.  They won’t do it in East Lansing.  If they do, look out in the B10 tournament for the Hoosiers. 

• Wisconsin at Ohio State – Sunday – first ever match-up between two #1 teams in Big Ten history.  This one should set the stage for a great conference tournament.  Whoever wins has the regular season title and the inside track to the #1 seed in the Big Dance.

• Michigan at Illinois – Wednesday – If the Illini want to improve their position in the post-season, they must win at home against pesky Michigan.  The Wolverines are riding high after their upset of Indiana at home last Saturday.  The Illini still have work to do, and this will keep them rolling.

• Purdue at Iowa – Wednesday – The Boilers need this game like the Illini need their game against Michigan.  To impress the selection people, you must win the games that you are supposed to, and at this point in the year, Purdue is supposed to win this one.

Next week will be part 2 of the “State of the Big Ten Address” after this week’s action concludes.